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Michigan upsets No. 2 Ohio State 13-10 for Wolverines' 4th straight win over bitter rivalChance of direct attack by Russia ‘remote’, says UK armed forces chief

KYIV, Ukraine — Desertion is starving the Ukrainian army of desperately needed manpower and crippling its battle plans at a crucial time in its war with Russia, which could put Kyiv at a clear disadvantage in future ceasefire talks. Facing every imaginable shortage, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops, tired and bereft, walked away from combat and front-line positions to slide into anonymity, according to soldiers, lawyers and Ukrainian officials. Entire units abandoned their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses, according to military commanders and soldiers. Some take medical leave and never return, haunted by the traumas of war and demoralized by bleak prospects for victory. Others clash with commanders and refuse to carry out orders, sometimes in the middle of firefights. “This problem is critical,” said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Kyiv-based military analyst. “This is the third year of war, and this problem will only grow.” Although Moscow has also been dealing with desertions, Ukrainians going AWOL laid bare deeply rooted problems bedeviling their military and how Kyiv is managing the war, from the flawed mobilization drive to the overstretching and hollowing out of front-line units. It comes as the U.S. urges Ukraine to draft more troops and allow for the conscription of those as young as 18. The Associated Press spoke to two deserters, three lawyers and a dozen Ukrainian officials and military commanders. Officials and commanders spoke on condition of anonymity to divulge classified information, while one deserter did so because he feared prosecution. “It is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people,” said an officer with the 72nd Brigade, who noted that desertion is one of the main reasons Ukraine lost the town of Vuhledar in October. More than 100,000 soldiers have been charged under Ukraine’s desertion laws since Russia invaded in February 2022, according to the country’s General Prosecutor’s Office. Nearly half have gone AWOL in the past year alone, after Kyiv launched an aggressive and controversial mobilization drive that government officials and military commanders concede largely failed. It’s a staggeringly high number by any measure, as there were an estimated 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers engaged in combat before the mobilization drive began. And the actual number of deserters may be much higher. One lawmaker with knowledge of military matters estimated it could be as high as 200,000. Many deserters don’t return after being granted medical leave. Bone-tired by the constancy of war, they are psychologically and emotionally scarred. They feel guilt about being unable to summon the will to fight, anger over how the war effort is being led and frustration that it seems unwinnable. “Being quiet about a huge problem only harms our country,” said Serhii Hnezdilov, one of few soldiers to speak publicly about his choice to desert. He was charged shortly after the AP interviewed him in September. Another deserter said he initially left his infantry unit with permission because he needed surgery. By the time his leave was up, he couldn’t bring himself to return. He still has nightmares about the comrades he saw get killed. “The best way to explain it is imagining you are sitting under incoming fire and from their (Russian) side, it’s 50 shells coming toward you, while from our side, it’s just one. Then you see how your friends are getting torn to pieces, and you realize that any second, it can happen to you,” he said. “Meanwhile guys (Ukrainian soldiers) 10 kilometers (6 miles) away order you on the radio: ‘Go on, brace yourselves. Everything will be fine,’” he said. Hnezdilov also left to seek medical help. Before undergoing surgery, he announced he was deserting. He said after five years of military service, he saw no hope of ever being demobilized, despite earlier promises by the country’s leadership. “If there’s no end term (to military service), it turns into a prison — it becomes psychologically hard to find reasons to defend this country,” Hnezdilov said. Desertion turned battle plans into sand that slips through military commanders’ fingertips. The AP learned of cases in which defensive lines were severely compromised because entire units defied orders and abandoned their positions. “Because of a lack of political will and poor management of troops, especially in the infantry, we certainly are not moving in a direction to properly defend the territories that we control now,” Hnezdilov said. Ukraine’s military recorded a deficit of 4,000 troops on the front in September owing largely to deaths, injuries and desertions, according to a lawmaker. Most deserters were among recent recruits. The head of one brigade’s legal service who is in charge of processing desertion cases and forwarding them to law enforcement said he’s had many of them. “The main thing is that they leave combat positions during hostilities and their comrades die because of it. We had several situations when units fled, small or large. They exposed their flanks, and the enemy came to these flanks and killed their brothers in arms, because those who stood on the positions did not know that there was no one else around,” the official said. That is how Vuhledar, a hilltop town that Ukraine defended for two years, was lost in a matter of weeks in October, said the 72nd Brigade officer, who was among the very last to withdraw. The 72nd was already stretched thin in the weeks before Vuhledar fell. Only one line battalion and two rifle battalions held the town near the end, and military leaders even began pulling units from them to support the flanks, the officer said. There should have been 120 men in each of the battalion’s companies, but some companies’ ranks dropped to only 10 because of deaths, injuries and desertions, he said. About 20% of the soldiers missing from those companies went AWOL. “The percentage has grown exponentially every month,” he said. Reinforcements were sent once Russia wised up to Ukraine’s weakened position and attacked. But then the reinforcements also left, the officer said. Because of this, when one of the 72nd Brigade battalions withdrew, its members were gunned down because they didn’t know no one was covering them, he said. Still, the officer harbors no ill will toward deserters. “At this stage, I do not condemn any of the soldiers from my battalion and others. ... Because everyone is just really tired,” he said. Prosecutors and the military would rather not press charges against AWOL soldiers and do so only if they fail to persuade them to return, according to three military officers and a spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Investigative Bureau. Some deserters return, only to leave again. Ukraine’s General Staff said soldiers are given psychological support, but it didn’t respond to emailed questions about the toll desertions are having on the battlefield. Once soldiers are charged, defending them is tricky, said two lawyers who take such cases. They focus on their clients’ psychological state when they left. “People cannot psychologically cope with the situation they are in, and they are not provided with psychological help,” attorney Tetyana Ivanova said. Get local news delivered to your inbox!

Economist says temporary tax cut, relief cheques play into rosier growth pictureMrBeast plans to 'show how blown out of proportion' game show allegations with BTS footageSubmitted by QTR's Fringe Finance Those who have been following me for a long time know that the term “animal spirits,” often used to describe the appetite for risk-taking in markets, is on my list of the financial world’s bullshit overused phrases and sayings perpetually invoked to explain to the commonfolk why markets only go up in our rigged, inflation and debt-based monetary policy system. I’ve taken similar exception to terms like “Santa Claus rally,” which we are undoubtedly going to hear no less than a trillion times between now and 2025, as financial commentators and analysts scramble for public relations lipstick to slap on top of a 30x price-to-earnings pig. Because, after all, according to “economists,” central bankers, and equity strategists, we should pay no attention to inflation or the purchasing power of the dollar — only the stock market and spending. The stock market always goes up and it should always have a reason to do so, according to them. By their logic, it’s never overvalued, there are never any bubbles, there is never any malinvestment and there’s nothing to worry about. Stop worrying about subprime housing—“subprime is contained,” Ben Bernanke told me. Stop worrying about inflation—“inflation is transitory,” Janet Yellen told me. Stop worrying about Enron — dozens of magazines in the 90’s said it was the best company on the planet. Elizabeth Holmes was “the next Steve Jobs”. Sam Bankman-Fried was the next Warren Buffett. And so on and so forth we fly into the perpetually euphoric and unprecedented monetary debasement experiment that will yield results that nobody can time or predict. A couple of years ago, the S&P 500 was at 3,000, and analysts set price targets for the next year at 3,500. The year after that, the S&P was at 4,000, and analysts set price targets for the following year at 4,500. The year after that, the market was at 5,000, and analysts set price targets for the next year at 5,500. The number keeps going up, the money printer keeps printing, the wealth inequality gap keeps widening, the market becomes further and further micromanaged by central banks, the ATMs of the country keep spitting out Federal Reserve notes, society continues to function, our US Dollar continues to “lead” the world economically. All the while, the Earth keeps spinning inside our solar system, which is inside a galaxy, which is inside a universe that, according to scientists, continues to expand into nothingness. And then one day you wake up at 3AM, like I did today, and the Shiller PE is a nosebleed 38x. And, with the uncertainty of this unprecedented experiment ahead, it isn’t just equity markets right now that personify the “animal spirits” in the market; it’s cryptocurrencies, which are now collectively worth over $3 trillion. The emerging asset class, still not understood by a majority of people on Earth, has been ground zero for risk-taking over the last couple of years. And if you’re in the mood for risk, why waste time trying to capture a pedestrian 30% in the stock market when Bitcoin feels like it’s doubling every other day? On top of that, there are options, futures, and leverage in all different types of ways to double, triple, quadruple, and 10x that double many times over. For risk-takers, cryptocurrency is like catnip. A lot of the discussion on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency universe has revolved around when the digital asset, now worth about $1.7 trillion will reach parity with gold, which commands a market cap of about $19 trillion right now. And at the rate things are going, it might not be too much longer before Bitcoin is a $5 trillion asset. We have a new incoming presidential administration that is favorable towards crypto, and the FOMO is palpable right now across the financial industry, with basically everybody except Vanguard capitulating and giving in to either buying Bitcoin, custodying it, trading it, or otherwise figuring out a way to make money off of it. Bitcoin adoption is surging, and this could mean one of two things: it’s either becoming a deeply rooted part of the financial system or we’re in a $3 trillion bubble that could burst. Once a skeptic, I’ve come to embrace Bitcoin, though I remain cautious about the unprecedented risks it carries. Gaining a better understanding of its mechanics and evaluating its risks helped shift my perspective. With Bitcoin nearing a $2 trillion market cap and other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin holding significant valuations, it’s a good moment to revisit the key risks involved. While bullish takes on crypto are everywhere, I prefer to examine the potential downsides. Years ago, I believed a crypto collapse could trigger a financial crisis. Although I’ve moved away from that view as adoption has grown, the larger Bitcoin gets, the bigger the potential economic shock if things go south. It’s not a prediction, but it’s a risk worth considering. 🔥 BLACK FRIDAY - 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever Then there’s the question of what could go wrong. Bitcoin is an unprecedented asset class with unique risks, many of which are still unknown. For example, if Satoshi’s dormant coins suddenly moved, it could trigger a sharp price drop, with significant consequences for a market driven by leverage and speculation. Even if Bitcoin survives long-term, a $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion loss in value could ripple through the economy. As Bitcoin’s market cap grows, so does its systemic risk. I’ve also often raised the question of what comes next after SHA-256 hash functions and whether or not Bitcoin will be safe amidst the jump to quantum computing. The prevailing sentiment has always been that to protect the Bitcoin network, miners and those invested in developing the network will have to stay on the forefront of technological change and encryption capabilities to ensure the network doesn’t lose a beat as the world of microprocessing advances. The ‘bull case’ thoughts about this risk, at least according to Michael Saylor the last time I talked to him, was that if you had the power to crack SHA-256 encryption right now, there would be much bigger potential targets to go after than the Bitcoin network, seeing as how the very same encryption ensures the integrity of almost all major, consequential defense, military, and government computer networks worldwide. Saylor makes a valid point, but as Bitcoin's market cap grows, so does the incentive to hack or compromise its network. With a $1.8 trillion bounty effectively on the line, the temptation for bad actors increases. Fortunately, Bitcoin’s network is built with significant redundancy and safeguards, but the true risks, especially from quantum computing, will only become clear as technology advances. I will continue to watch cryptocurrency very closely, if not for any other reason, then as a gauge for risk-on sentiment starting to falter. When investors move to risk-off strategies, they tend to sell the riskiest assets first—starting with cryptocurrencies, then equities, bonds, and eventually autos and real estate. Since crypto markets are highly leveraged, their movements can serve as a key signal for broader market and economic downturns. There’s a reason the saying “stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down” exists. There’s also a reason for the saying “the bigger they are, the harder they fall.” There’s also a reason market panics often shock and scare market participants: they happen when people least expect them. And all I’m saying today is when euphoria and speculation have hit their peak, when you least expect it, that ‘animal spirits’ can become ‘cannibal spirits’ very quickly. Despite three years of rate hikes, the stock market has remained resilient. This could be due to excess liquidity, strong investor optimism, confidence in Fed policies, or even anticipation of lower taxes and deregulation following Trump’s reelection. Everyone is breathing a sigh of relief right now, me included, as it relates to the economy. As I wrote earlier this month in my article , The Dam Has Burst, The Floodgates Of Liberty Just Opened, it feels like the nation’s soul can breathe a little bit. Many feel relieved, believing the Fed may achieve a "soft landing." Inflation concerns are easing, even though prices remain above the 2% target, and optimism about the stock market persists despite signs of a strained consumer and a fragile economy. A final reminder, as the nation feels awash with liberty — liberty is an ally of freedom. And freedom in markets means that prices go both up and down. QTR’s Disclaimer : Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here . This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.