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The Yomiuri Shimbun 7:00 JST, November 27, 2024 * * Motohiko Saito, 47, was reelected as the governor of Hyogo Prefecture on Nov. 17 after having been ousted from the post in September when the prefectural assembly unanimously passed a no-confidence motion against him over accusations of harassment. On the evening of the election day, people who had gathered in the area around his campaign office in a shopping district in Kobe’s Chuo Ward were extremely excited following his victory. The 10-meter-wide shopping arcade was packed with his supporters for dozens of meters, and people called out Saito’s name repeatedly as if they were at a concert. “The web has won!” a 43-year-old man from Saitama Prefecture shouted while live streaming the situation on YouTube. The man runs the “Fukumaro Net News Channel” on the video-sharing website. While working as a company employee, he used to live stream his commentaries on games on his channel but was unable to get many views. However, the number of views suddenly increased three years ago after he posted videos of Diet debates that he had edited. Having begun to receive several hundred thousand yen in advertising revenue per month, the man became a full-time “political YouTuber.” While continuing to produce videos, he visited places around the country where elections were being held. In July, he followed Shinji Ishimaru, 42, a former mayor of Akitakata, Hiroshima Prefecture, who ran in the Tokyo gubernatorial election. The man said he had no particular interest in Saito, but started gathering information on him on X, formerly Twitter, after seeing a post in support of Saito on the social media site in September by a celebrity he follows. The man said he then began to question the remarks that commentators made against Saito on TV. Through social media, the man also felt growing public interest in Saito and the issues surrounding him, so he decided to follow Saito for his YouTube channel. He went to Hyogo Prefecture one day before the official kickoff of campaigning for the gubernatorial election. Spending nights in his car, he live streamed Saito’s speeches. Considering the costs, the man said it was a “gamble” as to whether the videos would make a profit. But the number of views his channel received increased day by day, and topped 1.7 million on the day of the vote. “I earned the highest profit ever. It’s all thanks to Saito,” he said. The man distributed more than 80 videos during the campaign period. He also streamed videos of Takashi Tachibana, 57, another candidate in the Hyogo election and the head of the political group NHK Party, making remarks that are difficult to verify. “I do think there is information that hasn’t been confirmed to be true,” the YouTuber said. “But I’m fine as long as my viewers are pleased.” According to the Net Communication Research Institute, a think tank specializing in social media analysis, there were many YouTube channels supporting Saito, and the number of views of at least 13 exceeded those of Saito’s own YouTube channel. On social media sites, advertising revenue increases based on the number of views. For this reason, attracting attention is often considered to be more important than accuracy or fairness — a characteristic of what is called the “attention economy.” “There are believed to have been videos made for profit [in relation to the Hyogo election],” said Yoshimi Nakamura, the head of the research institute. “With the success of live streamers in the election, competition for attention is likely to intensify in future polls.” The spread of interest in Saito can also be seen in posts on X. The Yomiuri Shimbun asked Prof. Fujio Toriumi of the University of Tokyo, who specializes in computational social science, to analyze the posts on X during the campaign period from Oct. 31 to Nov. 16. It found that the number of posts mentioning Saito during these dates was 1.6 times greater than the total number of posts mentioning the other six candidates. Such posts were spread by a small number of accounts. Of about 990,000 posts that showed support for Saito, about 490,000 posts were based on 786 original posts from just 16 accounts. The 16 accounts made up only 0.9% of the total accounts that were related to the 990,000 posts favoring Saito. The Yomiuri Shimbun found that some of the posts were difficult to verify with evidence. For example, some of them linked the death of a prefectural official who accused Saito of workplace bullying and other allegations with the official’s personal information, which was unrelated to the accusation and was stored on an official computer. However, the police said they could not determine the reason for the official’s death. “It had been believed that the relationship between the spread of social media and elections in Japan is weak, but this time, it is considered that it had a certain impact on voting behavior,” Toriumi said. “People should approach social media with the assumption that there is misinformation on it, and we should discuss the role of social media in elections as a society.”

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Europe is worried that Russia could attack countries beyond Ukraine. At the same time, Trump has suggested the US would be less involved in helping its NATO allies. Without US support, Europe lacks a key capability needed in a conflict with Russia, experts told BI. If President-elect Donald Trump cuts US military cooperation with Europe, its NATO allies there would lose a key capability needed to resist Russian aggression. Advertisement Europe relies heavily on the US for the use of aircraft and weaponry to target air defense systems, known as suppression of enemy air defenses, or SEAD. If a military can't execute this critical mission, its aircraft are hindered and vulnerable, unable to strike or protect, leaving its ground forces much more exposed and less effective. Advertisement "One of the most crucial things that Europe is lacking is SEAD," Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK's Royal Aeronautical Society, told BI. He described SEAD as "a crucial role," but one Europe has let "wither the vine." Reliance on the US There are few dedicated SEAD platforms on the continent. Germany and Italy's Tornado aircraft carry the AGM-88 HARM munition for targeting radars and are equipped with the needed Emitter Location System, but those are set to be retired next year. Other NATO partners operate F-16s, which can have a SEAD role, but only US Air Force Fighting Falcons are equipped with the HARM Targeting System for better SEAD. Advertisement US allies in Europe are increasingly looking to replace older aircraft with F-35s, but only a few are also acquiring AGM-88 missiles. (These missiles are highly capable for SEAD missions and were delivered to the Ukrainian air force for this purpose, but less so for the destruction of enemy air defenses, or DEAD, missions.) "The F-35 was designed specifically to be able to operate against modern SAM systems in both the penetrating strike and SEAD/DEAD roles," Justin Bronk, an air power expert at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote early last year. Advertisement He highlighted the fifth-generation jet's advanced stealth, electronic warfare, and active and passive sensor suite for detecting enemy surface-to-air missile systems. "Despite these very impressive capabilities, simply fielding the F-35 is not sufficient as an answer to European NATO's SEAD/ DEAD problem in itself," he said. This situation has left Europe heavily dependent on the US, less than ideal amid questions about US reliability and as Russia's war in Ukraine has shown how important defeating enemy air-defense batteries is in modern conflict. Advertisement In Ukraine, neither side has been able to conduct successful SEAD operations, leaving both air forces hugely hampered and forcing ground units into grinding battles with heavy casualties. Mattias Eken, a missile defense expert at the RAND Corporation, said an important lesson from the Ukraine war has been that "air forces must be able to find, suppress, and destroy" mobile surface-to-air missiles to achieve air superiority "against even moderately equipped state opponents." An American-made Patriot air defense system fires a missile. SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images Eken added that no other Western air force except the US has significant SEAD capabilities. All other NATO forces "have limited penetrating assets, munitions stocks, and experience in operating large, mixed strike packages." Advertisement American SEAD might and a lack of European capability Retired US Army Maj. Gen. Gordon "Skip" Davis, who served as NATO's deputy assistant secretary-general for its defense-investment division, said "the vast majority of the SEAD aircraft, in the event of aggression, would be provided by the US." Related stories Davis told BI that the US has the stealth aircraft, including penetrating bombers, needed to locate and destroy Russian air defenses, and US aircraft have intelligence capabilities "that NATO would have great difficulty in replacing." He warned that without better SEAD capabilities or US support, NATO "would be hard-pressed to be effective in a large Russian aggression." Advertisement Warfare experts at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in April 2023 that "NATO is now wholly dependent on the United States for SEAD capabilities." A key example was the large-scale NATO air campaign over Libya in 2011, where the US provided almost all of the alliance's SEAD capabilities despite having planned to only play a supporting role in that situation. A rocket launches from a S-400 missile system at the Ashuluk military base in Southern Russia. Photo by DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images Looking ahead, Europe may not be able to count on the US. Trump has been a strong critic of NATO and, in his first term, threatened to withdraw from the military alliance if other nations didn't spend more on their defense. Advertisement European countries have dramatically increased their defense spending since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began , and some now spend more on defense than the US as a percentage of GDP. (Warfare experts say that's a response to Russian aggression, not Trump's pressure .) But Europe is acutely aware of Trump's threats, and military experts warn that the continent's increased expenditure is not enough to support Ukraine and prepare for Russia's threats alone. It still needs the US. Thinking about the Russian threat Russia has repeatedly threatened to attack elsewhere in Europe, and many countries have warned that it could happen in the next few years, especially if Moscow emerges victorious in Ukraine. Advertisement It's unclear if the US would or even could withdraw its support, especially for allies who already spend a lot on defense. US forces are now so integrated in Europe that, if something happens soon, "they're automatically involved" unless the US makes a major policy shift to return forces to the US, Gordon said. Europe is nevertheless taking actions to address its deficiencies, like a pan-European defense company now developing a new SPEAR-EW missile. Advertisement A Pantsir-S1 and an S-400 at a Russian base in Syria. Russian Defense Ministry Press Service "I think the penny has dropped," said Robinson, but he added that not enough was happening. "It's taking time, I think, for European capitals and maybe multinational organizations to get the momentum going." Michael Bohnert, a warfare expert at the RAND Corporation, said that it could take years to reconstitute a supply chain for necessary missiles. That means "there really aren't any good options" to cover a deficit in the short term if the US pulls back, he told BI. Robinson said Europe has an advanced industrial base, but "the difficulty is it's all fragmented." Advertisement Some cooperation has taken place, including four European nations agreeing to operate their jets as a single fleet . Jan Kallberg, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and a fellow at the Army Cyber Institute at West Point, said "acquisition, cooperation, and collaboration are essential." He said countries should buy assets together and "operate jointly as a multinational force," especially given how large Europe is and how much land may need to be defended. Advertisement Fixing Europe's SEAD deficits will take time, during which it will be more vulnerable to attacks. But Russia has demonstrated an inability to effectively use its own assets — a flaw that could ultimately aid Europe. "Europe will lack enough SEAD capabilities for the next 10 to 15 years," said Kallberg, but "the Russian air force and air defenses can't get their intelligence, command, and control to act together, and lack resources for broad modernization." "If there is a war," he said, "it is not Europe's abilities that save the day. It is the Russian inability."Every SUV and ute discontinued in Australia in 2024

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