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President of Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy commits $60,000 to keep Baltimore pizza shop openSam Houston at Jacksonville State: game outlook, TV information, predictionOver the past year, Benson Boone has had more than a few reasons to do backflips — literally. His acrobatic skills have become a staple of his live performances, whether it was during his opening slot on Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” or at the MTV Video Music Awards in September. At the latter event, where he was nominated in four categories, he launched himself off the top of a piano while singing his breakout smash “Beautiful Things,” gracefully landing and hitting a Freddie Mercury-esque high note. Now, Boone has been named Variety Hitmakers Newcomer of the Year. Much of the 22-year-old’s success in 2024 can be traced to “Beautiful Things,” the decibel-stoking ballad that went viral on TikTok and swiftly mounted the charts, where it stayed for most of the year following its release in January. It not only raised his stock among fans, including the nearly 50 million Spotify listeners who play his music each month, but also made him a contender for best new artist at the upcoming Grammy Awards. “I have so much trouble processing it all right now, because I’m trying to stay on top of it and make this moment bigger than just ‘Beautiful Things,’” he says. “But when I sit back and look at what’s happening, it really, truly blows my mind. It’s something a lot of people dream of, and [I’m] one of those people.” Boone’s aspirations led to his debut album, “Fireworks & Rollerblades,” an anthemic collection of soaring pop tunes about trials and tribulations of the heart. On the album, released in April, his powerful tenor brings emotion to walloping tracks like “Slow It Down” and “Forever and a Day” — songs that could easily soundtrack the credits to a romantic drama. “Beautiful Things” was a turning point for Boone, who wrote the song in September of last year. He cut the track with songwriters Evan Blair and Jack LaFrantz, the latter of whom contributes to much of “Fireworks & Rollerblades.” After the song exploded on TikTok, where it has been used in more than 4 million videos, Boone set to work on the album and then took it out on a global tour that kicked off in April and continues through the top of the year in Australia. Though Boone’s rocket ride to stardom has been head-spinning, it’s only been a few years since he began nurturing his passion for singing back home in Monroe, Wash. His first time performing was at a high school talent show. In 2021, his TikTok posts caught the attention of the folks at “American Idol,” who asked him to audition. He made it to the top 24 but dropped out, unsure if music was his calling. Then came an invitation from Imagine Dragons frontman Dan Reynolds to join him in Las Vegas to learn about songwriting. “I got to watch him for three days and observe how he does it,” Boone recalls. “And then I went off on my own and figured it out myself.” In 2021, he signed to Reynolds’ Night Street Records in partnership with Warner Music, leading to buzz-building singles like “Ghost Town” and “Nights Like These.” Now, with one of the year’s biggest hits, Boone is focused on “getting better at writing and production,” he says. “I am just stoked that it’s resonating with people — obviously that’s all an artist can dream of.”
Volume was thin Thursday with several international markets closed and many participants extending their holiday fun. Stocks opened the day lower but found their way into positive territory by lunchtime. The enthusiasm faded into the close, however, putting this year's Santa Claus rally at risk. The Santa Claus rally is "officially defined as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the new year," says Adam Turnquist , chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. "Since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated average and median returns of 1.3% during this period, widely outpacing the market's average seven-day return of 0.3%." Turnquist adds that when stocks deliver a positive Santa Claus rally return, "the S&P 500 has generated an average January and forward annual return of 1.4% and 10.4%, respectively." Subscribe to Kiplinger’s Personal Finance Be a smarter, better informed investor. Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail. Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail. After closing higher in Tuesday's abbreviated session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished today up 0.07% at 43,325, while the S&P 500 was 0.04% lower at 6,037, and the Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.05% to 20,020. Investors shouldn't worry about short-term volatility "The recent volatility appears to be a combination of a Fed more cautious about cutting than hoped for, and the difficult-to-forecast bold changes proposed by the Trump administration which while bullish in theory might be costly in the short term," says Louis Navellier, chairman and founder of Navellier & Associates . Despite any short-term struggles, Navellier reminds us that "we've had two very strong years in the stock market" and that looking ahead, artificial intelligence (AI) promises to bring big gains in productivity and interest rates are likely to continue falling. "Even without a Santa Claus Rally, there's a lot to celebrate and look forward to," he says. Continuing claims hit a three-year high Initial jobless claims headlined a relatively light economic calendar . Data from the Labor Department showed first-time filings fell by 1,000 in the week ending December 21, to 219,000. More notable was that continuing claims rose to 1.91 million from 1.86 million the week prior – the highest level since November 2021. "For now, the consumer has a healthy appetite for travel and other discretionary items but elevated continuing claims suggest a slowdown in the job market," says Jeffrey Roach , chief economist for LPL Financial. Analysts think Palantir can fall by 45% In single-stock news, Palantir Technologies ( PLTR ) fell 0.3% even after Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said the data analytics firm is one of the best software companies to benefit from AI in 2025. "We believe Palantir has a credible path to morph into the next Oracle ( ORCL ) over the coming decade with (Artificial Intelligence Platform) leading the way as many on the Street continue to be huge skeptics of the Messi of AI," the analyst says. Ives is arguably one of the biggest bulls in Palantir's corner with an Outperform (Buy) rating and a $75 price target – though this still sits 8% below the share price. The consensus recommendation of the 21 analysts following the newest Nasdaq-100 stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence is Hold and the average price target is $43.90 – a more than 45% discount to current levels. UBS Global Research analyst Karl Keirstead recently initiated coverage on Palantir with a Neutral (Hold) rating. He had a "very positive" review of PLTR's fundamentals, with customers and other checks "almost all bullish" on the value they are getting. "The main thing keeping us on the sidelines is valuation," Keirstead says after the stock has surged nearly fivefold this year, adding that this is "simply tough to get over." Related content Best Dividend Stocks to Buy for Dependable Dividend Growth How to Invest Your Holiday Cash What to Expect From Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies in 2025The UK Government was warned that a “save David campaign” for UUP leader Lord Trimble would ruin progress made under the Good Friday Agreement. Extensive confidential documents in the lead-up to the collapse of Northern Ireland’s institutions in 2002 have been made available to the public as part of annual releases from the Irish National Archives. They reveal that the Irish Government wanted to appeal to the UK side against “manipulating” every scenario for favourable election results in Northern Ireland, in an effort to protect the peace process. In the years after the landmark 1998 Good Friday Agreement, a number of outstanding issues left the political environment fraught with tension and disagreement. Mr Trimble, who won a Nobel Peace Prize with SDLP leader John Hume for their work on the Agreement, was keen to gain wins for the UUP on policing, ceasefire audits and paramilitary disarmament – but also to present his party as firmer on these matters amid swipes from its Unionist rival, the DUP. These issues were at the front of his mind as he tried to steer his party into Assembly elections planned for May 2003 and continue in his role as the Executive’s first minister despite increasing political pressure. The documents reveal the extent to which the British and Irish Governments were trying to delicately resolve the contentious negotiations, conscious that moves seen as concessions to one group could provoke anger on the other side. In June 2002, representatives of the SDLP reported to Irish officials on a recent meeting between Mr Hume’s successor Mark Durkan and Prime Minister Tony Blair on policing and security. Mr Blair is said to have suggested that the SDLP and UUP were among those who both supported and took responsibility for the Good Friday Agreement. The confidential report of the meeting says that Mr Durkan, the deputy First Minister, was not sure that Mr Trimble had been correctly categorised. The Prime Minister asked if the SDLP could work more closely with the UUP ahead of the elections. Mr Durkan argued that Mr Trimble was not only not saleable to nationalists, but also not saleable to half of the UUP – to which Mr Blair and Northern Ireland Secretary John Reid are said to have laughed in agreement. The SDLP leader further warned that pursuing a “save David” campaign would ruin all they had worked for. Damien McAteer, an adviser for the SDLP, was recorded as briefing Irish officials on September 10 that it was his view that Mr Trimble was intent on collapsing the institutions in 2003 over expected fallout for Sinn Fein in the wake of the Colombia Three trial, where men linked to the party were charged with training Farc rebels – but predicted the UUP leader would be “in the toilet” by January, when an Ulster Unionist Council (UUC) meeting was due to take place. A week later in mid September, Mr Trimble assured Irish premier Bertie Ahern that the next UUC meeting to take place in two days’ time would be “okay but not great” and insisted he was not planning to play any “big game”. It was at that meeting that he made the bombshell announcement that the UUP would pull out of the Executive if the IRA had not disbanded by January 18. The move came as a surprise to the Irish officials who, along with their UK counterparts, did not see the deadline as realistic. Sinn Fein described the resolution as a “wreckers’ charter”. Doubts were raised that there would be any progress on substantive issues as parties would not be engaged in “pre-election skirmishing”. As that could lead to a UUP walkout and the resulting suspension of the institutions, the prospect of delaying the elections was raised while bringing forward the vote was ruled out. Therefore, the two Governments stressed the need to cooperate as a stabilising force to protect the Agreement – despite not being sure how that process would survive through the January 18 deadline. The Irish officials became worried that the British side did not share their view that Mr Trimble was not “salvageable” and that the fundamental dynamic in the UUP was now Agreement scepticism, the confidential documents state. In a meeting days after the UUC announcements, Mr Reid is recorded in the documents as saying that as infuriating as it was, Mr Trimble was at that moment the “most enlightened Unionist we have”. The Secretary said he would explore what the UUP leader needed to “survive” the period between January 18 and the election, believing a significant prize could avoid him being “massacred”. Such planning went out the window just weeks later, when hundreds of PSNI officers were involved in raids of several buildings – including Sinn Fein’s offices in Stormont. The resulting “Stormontgate” spy-ring scandal accelerated the collapse of powersharing, with the UUP pulling out of the institutions – and the Secretary of State suspending the Assembly and Executive on October 14. For his part, Irish officials were briefed that Mr Reid was said to be “gung ho” about the prospect of exercising direct rule – reportedly making no mention of the Irish Government in a meeting with Mr Trimble and Mr Durkan on that day. The Northern Ireland Secretary was given a new role and Paul Murphy was appointed as his successor. A note on speaking points for a meeting with Mr Murphy in April showed that the Irish side believed the May elections should go ahead: “At a certain stage the political process has to stand on its own feet. “The Governments cannot be manipulating and finessing every scenario to engineer the right result. “We have to start treating the parties and the people as mature and trusting that they have the discernment to make the right choices.” However, the elections planned for May did not materialise, instead delayed until November. Mr Trimble would go on to lose his Westminster seat – and stewardship of the UUP – in 2005. The November election saw the DUP emerge as the largest parties – but direct rule continued as Ian Paisley’s refused to share power with Sinn Fein, which Martin McGuinness’ colleagues. The parties eventually agreed to work together following further elections in 2007. – This article is based on documents in 2024/130/5, 2024/130/6, 2024/130/15
Saint Nick-Mas: 10 Best Nickelodeon Holiday Specials, Ranked
Brian Thompson led one of the biggest health insurers in the U.S. but was unknown to millions of people his decisions affected. Then Wednesday’s targeted fatal shooting of the UnitedHealthcare CEO on a midtown Manhattan sidewalk thrust the executive and his business into the national spotlight. Thompson, who was 50, had worked at the giant UnitedHealth Group Inc for 20 years and run the insurance arm since 2021 after running its Medicare and retirement business. As CEO, Thompson led a firm that provides health coverage to more than 49 million Americans — more than the population of Spain. United is the largest provider of Medicare Advantage plans, the privately run versions of the U.S. government’s Medicare program for people age 65 and older. The company also sells individual insurance and administers health-insurance coverage for thousands of employers and state-and federally funded Medicaid programs. The business run by Thompson brought in $281 billion in revenue last year, making it the largest subsidiary of the Minnetonka, Minnesota-based UnitedHealth Group. His $10.2 million annual pay package, including salary, bonus and stock options awards, made him one of the company’s highest-paid executives. The University of Iowa graduate began his career as a certified public accountant at PwC and had little name recognition beyond the health care industry. Even to investors who own its stock, the parent company’s face belonged to CEO Andrew Witty, a knighted British triathlete who has testified before Congress. When Thompson did occasionally draw attention, it was because of his role in shaping the way Americans get health care. At an investor meeting last year, he outlined his company’s shift to “value-based care,” paying doctors and other caregivers to keep patients healthy rather than focusing on treating them once sick. “Health care should be easier for people,” Thompson said at the time. “We are cognizant of the challenges. But navigating a future through value-based care unlocks a situation where the ... family doesn’t have to make the decisions on their own.” Thompson also drew attention in 2021 when the insurer, like its competitors, was widely criticized for a plan to start denying payment for what it deemed non-critical visits to hospital emergency rooms. “Patients are not medical experts and should not be expected to self-diagnose during what they believe is a medical emergency,” the chief executive of the American Hospital Association wrote in an open letter addressed to Thompson. “Threatening patients with a financial penalty for making the wrong decision could have a chilling effect on seeking emergency care.” United Healthcare responded by delaying rollout of the change. Thompson, who lived in a Minneapolis suburb and was the father of two high-school students, was set to speak at an investor meeting in a midtown New York hotel. He was on his own and about to enter the building when he was shot in the back by a masked assailant who fled on foot before pedaling an e-bike into Central Park a few blocks away, the New York Police Department said. Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said investigators were looking at Thompson’s social media accounts and interviewing employees and family members. “Didn’t seem like he had any issues at all,” Kenny said. “He did not have a security detail.” ___ AP reporters Michael R. Sisak and Steve Karnowski contributed to this report. Murphy reported from Indianapolis. Brian Thompson led one of the biggest health insurers in It is an ambitious social experiment of our moment in Enrollment in North Carolina’s new Medicaid coverage for low-income adults An elaborate parody appears to be behind an effort to
The passing of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the age of 92 has left the nation in mourning. He died at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Delhi, on Thursday night. Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Manoj Sinha, expressed his profound grief over the loss, emphasizing Singh's pivotal role in shaping India's growth trajectory. In a message of condolence, Sinha stated, ''As Prime Minister, he took bold steps for nation building. In his passing away, the nation has lost a towering politician and a distinguished luminary.'' (With inputs from agencies.)— BIRTH NAME: James Earl Carter, Jr. — BORN: Oct. 1, 1924, at the Wise Clinic in Plains, Georgia, the first U.S. president born in a hospital. He would become the first president to live for an entire century . — EDUCATION: Plains High School, Plains, Georgia, 1939-1941; Georgia Southwestern College, Americus, Georgia, 1941-1942; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, 1942-1943; U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland, 1943-1946 (class of 1947); Union College, Schenectady, New York, 1952-1953. — PRESIDENCY: Sworn-in as 39th president of the United States at the age of 52 years, 3 months and 20 days on Jan. 20, 1977, after defeating President Gerald R. Ford in the 1976 general election. Left office on Jan. 20, 1981, following 1980 general election loss to Ronald Reagan. — POST-PRESIDENCY: Launched The Carter Center in 1982. Began volunteering at Habitat for Humanity in 1984. Awarded Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. Taught for 37 years at Emory University, where he was granted tenure in 2019, at age 94. — OTHER ELECTED OFFICES: Georgia state senator, 1963-1967; Georgia governor, 1971-1975. — OTHER OCCUPATIONS: Served in U.S. Navy, achieved rank of lieutenant, 1946-53; Farmer, warehouseman, Plains, Georgia, 1953-77. — FAMILY: Wife, Rosalynn Smith Carter , married July 7, 1946 until her death Nov. 19, 2023. They had three sons, John William (Jack), James Earl III (Chip), Donnel Jeffrey (Jeff); a daughter, Amy Lynn; and 11 living grandchildren and 14 great-grandchildren. Source: Jimmy Carter Library & MuseumOur community members are treated to special offers, promotions and adverts from us and our partners. You can check out at any time. More info Dad of five Peter Andre has shared a sweet Christmas video featuring his oldest daughter, 17 year old Princess , playing with his youngest, eight month old Arabella. In the clip, backed by Sade’s song Kiss of Life, Princess is seen lying on a sofa blowing kisses to her baby sister while the pair are watching Moana and a Christmas tree twinkles in the corner of the room. Peter captioned the clip: “The relationship between these two is so special, #sisterlove,” and lots of fans rushed to comment on the heartwarming scene. One wrote: “The way she’s looking at her is pure sisterly love,” while another said: “So heartwarming Peter, you are very blessed indeed. Merry Christmas to you all.” A third added: “She’s just the best big sister, you all must be so very proud, she’s a credit to you,” while a fourth said: “Aww this is so special and adorable what a wonderful moment to catch.” Arabella is Peter’s third child with wife Dr Emily MacDonagh . They also share Millie, aged 10 and Theo, aged eight. Peter also has two children with ex-wife Katie Price , Princess and 19 year old son Junior. Recently, Peter corrected TV host Kate Garraway when she said he was a father of five . He replied: “Technically six,” which is believed to be a reference to Katie Price ’s eldest son Harvey , 22, whom he helped raise when he and Katie were in a relationship and later married. Their bond continued long after his split from Katie in 2009 after four years of marriage. In 2017, Peter said: “Harvey will always be special to me and I just want him to be happy.” He wrote: “He’s such a good-hearted boy, I see him a but more now, which is amazing. He’s just the best, I love him. There’s always room for Harvey at our house. I always saw him as my own. There’s a special place in my heart for him – he’s very important to me and he’s always welcome.” Speaking exclusively to OK! earlier this month , Peter and wife Emily spoke about what their family Christmas would be like this year. Peter revealed: “I didn’t celebrate Christmas until I had children, as my family were Jehovah’s Witnesses , so now I live it through my children.” Emily then spoke about their Christmas Day traditions: “We incorporate traditions from my childhood. We all open our stockings in our bed (which luckily is massive!), then have a full English breakfast. We open our gifts throughout the day – there’s no present-opening frenzy. There are so many of us, we want to appreciate every gift and the thought behind it. We get out for a walk, and watch the King’s speech. We have our meal at about four, watch a classic Christmas movie and someone inevitably falls asleep on the sofa – usually me!”
RIYADH: Saudi authorities have foiled a smuggling bid of the addictive drug Captagon into the Kingdom, confiscating more than 300,000 pills. The Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (ZATCA) thwarted five different attempts to smuggle a huge cache of drugs, worth millions of dollars, into the Kingdom through the Al-Haditha border crossing, local media outlets reported. The authorities in Saudi Arabia confiscated a total of 313,906 Captagon pills, arresting several suspects involved in drug smuggling. With the help of cutting-edge security technology, ZATCA uncovered the pills concealed in various locations within vehicles and trucks. According to details, at least 86,000 pills were hidden under a smuggler’s clothing, whereas 65,116 pills were stored inside a truck cabin refrigerator and 52,907 pills were stashed on the floor of a vehicle. Additionally, Saudi authorities confiscated around 55,232 pills concealed within a vehicle’s fuel tank, and 4,651 pills were discovered inside a spare tyre compartment. ZATCA called on the public to play a role in combating smuggling by reporting any suspicious activities, assuring them that all the reports related to smuggling or violations of the unified customs law are handled with the utmost confidentiality. ZATCA also promised financial rewards for individuals who provide accurate information about drug smuggling. According to a report by Reuters , curbing the Captagon trade has become a key demand by Arab states seeking to restore ties with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, whose government is accused of benefiting from the trade. As early as 2014, Syria was thought to be a major producer and consumer of the drug. Intelligence sources based in the region say Captagon is still produced in small factories along the Syrian-Lebanese border as well as larger ones closer to Syria’s frontier with Jordan. Some quantities are also produced in Lebanon, according to security sources. The United States, Britain and European Union have blamed Syria’s government for the production and export of the drug, naming Maher al-Assad – the head of the army’s Fourth Division and the president’s brother – as a key figure. Pinning down the trade’s value is difficult but diplomatic sources say it is worth several billion dollars a year. The United States, the European Union and Britain have accused the Fourth Division and other Syrian officials of benefitting from the trade, but it is not clear to what extent, if any, it fills state coffers. What is Captagon Captagon was the brand name of a stimulant first produced in Germany in the 1960s to help treat attention deficit disorders, narcolepsy and other conditions. It was discontinued but an illicit version of the drug continued to be produced in eastern Europe and later in the Arab region, becoming prominent in the conflict that erupted in Syria following anti-government protests in 2011. The illicit version is thought to be made of a mix of fenethylline, caffeine and other fillers. It generates focus and staves off sleep and hunger. In 2021, Saudi Arabia put in place an import ban on all Lebanese products over drug smuggling and the issue has become a top concern for Arab countries seeking a solution to Syria’s war.Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Last week, we discussed that the selloff heading into Christmas was the setup for the beginning of the year-end “Santa Claus” rally. On Christmas Eve, Santa arrived, pushing the markets back above the important 50-DMA. However, the market sold off on Friday to successfully retest the 50-DMA. While it may seem that the “Santa Rally” stalled, I suspect that we could see some buying next week as portfolio window dressing concludes and traders position portfolios in the first two days of January. As shown, momentum and relative strength are weak currently, but if the market can break back above the 20-DMA, this should bring buyers into the market. As we noted previously, the sell signal keeps a lid on price appreciation, and until that reverses, there is limited upside to the markets over this week. There is also the 24% possibility that a rally fails to materialize entirely. We suggest managing portfolio risk until the market ultimately makes a decisive move. We continue to monitor yield spreads, which remain near the lowest level since the “Financial Crisis.” When yield spreads were this low previously, this equated to excessive optimism about financial market conditions. This is the same currently, as investors are willing to overpay for the risk they are taking on. Unfortunately, such has not ended well previously, but yield spreads will be the leading indicator for investors to reduce portfolio risk more aggressively. For now, optimism remains high. But as we will discuss today, that is also a problem we need to monitor closely. In “ 2025 Predictions, “ we showed some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, optimism for the coming year is very high. The median estimate is for the market to rise to 6600 next year, which would be a disappointing return of just 8.2% after two years of 20% plus gains. However, the high estimate from Wells Fargo suggests a 14% return, with the low estimate from UBS of just a 5% return. Notably, there is not one estimate available for a negative return. Interestingly, optimism for 2025 has taken on an interesting twist. Over the last two years of above-average returns, earnings growth has come from just the top-7 market capitalization companies in the S&P 500 index. However, analysts now expect earnings to shift from the bottom 493 companies in the index. The optimism in these assumptions is interesting because the economy has grown strongly over the last two years, yet those 493 companies could not grow earnings. What will change in 2025? Yes, President Trump has promised to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but that doesn’t change the previous tax rate in the last two years. He has proposed to remove tax on tips and social security, but that impacts only a small percentage of the population. On the other hand, depending on the scale and areas of impact, deregulation could improve earnings, but much of that will have to be passed through Congress, which could prove difficult. The Federal Reserve hopes to continue to cut interest rates, but sticky inflation could slow that process, particularly if economic growth remains strong into 2025. Even if the economy continues to grow strongly, what will cause the shift in earnings growth from those dominant market players to much smaller companies? Such is particularly the case given the continued reversal of monetary liquidity in the economy, with higher borrowing costs and declining consumer savings rates. However, while analyst’s optimism about earnings growth in 2025 is high, which would take earnings well above the long-term growth trend, those estimates are already reversing toward reality. In the last six months, estimates have dropped by $3 per share and will likely be closer to $220 per share by next year. As shown, earnings tend not to deviate from the long-term trend for long, and typically, those deviations only occur during recessions and immediate recoveries. As discussed recently , if earnings revert toward the long-term trend, which should be expected given that earnings are a function of economic growth, the current valuations become more problematic. “While the bullish optimism is possible, that outcome faces many challenges in 2025, given the market already trades at fairly lofty valuations. Even in a “soft landing” environment, earnings should weaken, which makes current valuations at 27x earnings more challenging to sustain. Therefore, assuming earnings decline toward their long-term trend, that would suggest current estimates fall to $220/share by the end of 2025. This substantially changes the outlook for stocks, with the most bullish case being 6380, assuming a roughly 4.5% gain versus every other outcome, providing losses ranging from a 2.6% loss to a 20.6% decline.” But again, those assumptions are based on a continued moderation in economic growth. However, to justify the optimism for increased earnings growth, we must also expect that: Economic growth remains more robust than the average 20-year growth rate. Wage and labor growth must reverse (weaken) to sustain historically elevated profit margins . Both interest rates and inflation need to decline to support consumer spending. Trump’s planned tariffs will increase costs on some products and may not be fully offset by replacement and substitution. Reductions in Government spending, debt issuance, and the deficit subtract from corporate profitability (Kalecki Profit Equation). Slower economic growth in China, Europe, and Japan reduces demand for U.S. exports, slowing economic growt h. The Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates and continuing to reduce its balance sheet will reduce market liquidity. You get the idea. While optimism about economic and earnings growth is elevated going into 2025, there are risks to those forecasts. Such is particularly true when examining current economic data’s relative strength and trend. Subdued manufacturing activity, slowing GDP growth, and cautious consumer behavior all point to an economic environment less supportive of aggressive earnings growth. As such, investors must carefully navigate the disconnect between high Wall Street expectations and softening economic conditions. A better way to visualize this idea is to look at the correlation between the annual change in earnings growth and inflation-adjusted GDP. There are periods when earnings deviate from underlying economic activity. However, those periods are due to pre- or post-recession earnings fluctuations. Currently, economic and earnings growth are very close to the long-term correlation. Heading into 2025, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remain above real retail sales. While such deviations can occur, they tend not to remain that way long, given that retail sales comprise about 40% of PCE. Such suggests that in 2025, PCE will begin to converge with retail sales, resulting in slower economic growth rates. The following graph visualizes the plight of the average American by showing the “gap” between the cost of living and income and savings. To fund the current cost of living, consumers must spend all of their income and savings and then subsidize the remainder with almost $4000 in debt annually. This is why total consumer debt continues to rise, which does sustain economic activity in the near term. However, the longer-term impact is slower economic growth as consumers cannot take on excess debt. Also, if interest rates remain elevated, the impact on economic growth is exacerbated. So, if economic growth slows next year, as the Federal Reserve expects, why is Wall Street so optimistic? When Wall Street wants to make a stock offering for a new company, it has to sell that stock to someone to provide its client, the company, with the funds it needs. The Wall Street firm also makes a very nice commission from the transaction. Generally, these publicly offered shares are sold to the firm’s biggest clients, such as hedge funds, mutual funds, and other institutional clients. But where do those firms get their money? From you. Whether it is the money you invested in your mutual funds, 401k plan, pension fund, or insurance annuity, you are at the bottom of the money-grabbing frenzy. It’s much like a pyramid scheme – all the players above you are making their money...from you. In a study by Lawrence Brown, Andrew Call, Michael Clement, and Nathan Sharp, it is clear that Wall Street analysts are not interested in you. The study surveyed analysts from major Wall Street firms to understand what happened behind closed doors when research reports were being put together. In an interview with the researchers, John Reeves and Llan Moscovitz wrote: “Countless studies have shown that the forecasts and stock recommendations of sell-side analysts are of questionable value to investors. As it turns out, Wall Street sell-side analysts aren’t primarily interested in making accurate stock picks and earnings forecasts. Despite the attention lavished on their forecasts and recommendations, predictive accuracy just isn’t their main job.” The chart below is from the survey conducted by the researchers, which shows the main factors that play into analysts’ compensation. What analysts are “paid” to do is quite different from what retail investors “think” they do. “Sharp and Call told us that ordinary investors, who may be relying on analysts’ stock recommendations to make decisions, need to know that accuracy in these areas is ‘not a priority.’ One analyst told the researchers: ‘The part to me that’s shocking about the industry is that I came into the industry thinking [success] would be based on how well my stock picks do. But a lot of it ends up being “What are your broker votes?”‘ A ‘broker vote’ is an internal process whereby clients of the sell-side analysts’ firms assess the value of their research and decide which firms’ services they wish to buy. This process is crucial to analysts because good broker votes result in revenue for their firm. One analyst noted that broker votes ‘directly impact my compensation and directly impact the compensation of my firm.’” The question becomes, “ If the retail client is not the firm’s focus, then who is?” The survey table below clearly answers that question. Not surprisingly, you are at the bottom of the list. The incestuous relationship between companies, institutional clients, and Wall Street is the root cause of the ongoing problems within the financial system. It is a closed loop portrayed as a fair and functional system; however, it has become a “ money grab” that has corrupted the system and the regulatory agencies that are supposed to oversee it.LPGA, USGA to require players to be assigned female at birth or transition before puberty
Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah! Rare holiday overlap sparks reflection on faithThis story was originally published by Yale E360 and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. The angry Alaskans gathered in Fairbanks to burn the president’s effigy. It was early December 1978 and President Jimmy Carter was that unpopular in Alaska. A few days earlier Carter had issued an unusual executive order, designating 56 million acres of Alaskan wilderness as a national monument. He did so unilaterally, using a little known 1906 Antiquities Act that ostensibly gave the president the executive power to designate buildings or small plots of historical sites on federal land as national monuments. No previous president had ever used the obscure act to create a vast wilderness area. But Congress was refusing to pass the necessary legislation, so Carter, who passed away Sunday at the age of 100, decided to act alone. The Alaskan political establishment was flabbergasted. Despite the unpopularity of the unusual sequestration order, Carter announced that it would stand until Congress agreed to pass its own legislation. For the next two years Carter stubbornly held his ground, explaining that he wasn’t opposed to oil and gas development, but that he would not accept any bill that jeopardized the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge—the calving grounds and migratory route for one of the world’s last great caribou herds. Finally, Alaska’s senior politician, Republican Senator Ted Stevens agreed in late 1980 to break the impasse. At one point in their wrangling over what became known as the Alaska Lands Act, Senator Stevens argued that one small region should be excluded from the proposed wilderness refuge. “Well, let’s check that,” Carter said. The president then rolled out an oversized map on the floor of the Oval Office. Stevens was astonished to see the president on his hands and knees, inspecting the area in question. “No, I don’t think you are right,” Carter observed. “You see, this little watershed here doesn’t actually go into that one. It comes over here.” The senator had to concede the point, and on the car ride back to Capitol Hill he turned to his aide and remarked, “He knows more about Alaska than I do.” Sen. Ted Stevens and President Carter discuss the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act. Anchorage Daily News/Tribune News Service/Getty That was vintage Carter, the president who always paid attention to details. But it also illustrates Carter’s legacy as a president devoted to protecting the environment. Carter was still negotiating with Senator Stevens weeks after his defeat in the November 1980 election. But on December 2, 1980, this now lame-duck president signed the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act, creating more than 157 million acres of wilderness area, national wildlife refuges, and national parks—tripling the size of the nation’s Wilderness Preservation System and doubling the size of the National Park System. It was, and still is, the largest single expansion of protected lands in American history. More than four decades later, before he entered hospice care in his simple Plains, Georgia home in February, Carter signed an amicus brief, appealing to the courts and President Joe Biden, not to permit the building of a gravel road through one small portion of the designated wilderness area. It was his last act in the public arena. And it succeeded: On March 14, 2023, the Interior Department canceled a plan that would have allowed the road’s construction. Carter was always annoyed when pundits proclaimed him a “model” ex-president, but a failed president. And he was right to be annoyed because his was actually a quite consequential presidency, and no more so than on questions of conservation and the environment. Carter signs the Energy Bill on November 9, 1978. HUM Images/Universal Images Group/Getty Early in his presidency, in the spring of 1977, he famously vetoed a slew of water projects, mostly small dams and river diversion facilities, in dozens of congressional districts around the country. Federal funding of such projects was often a waste of taxpayer funds. And these boondoggles, always encouraged by the US Army Corps of Engineers, often harmed the rivers’ natural habitat. Carter knew he was doing the right thing—even though it eroded his support in a Democratic-controlled Congress. Carter’s instincts for conservation had been evident earlier when, as governor of Georgia, he had opposed unbridled commercial development, favored tough regulations to protect the state’s coastal wetlands, and endorsed the creation of two major seashores and river parks. But when Carter got to the White House, he shocked many observers by appointing James Gustave Speth, age 35, to the President’s Council on Environmental Quality. Speth was regarded by the Washington establishment as a radical on environmental issues. A Yale-trained lawyer and Rhodes Scholar, he had co-founded in 1970 the Natural Resources Defense Council, a tough advocacy group on environmental issues. Speth, who later served as dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, used his position in the administration to educate Carter about the dangers of acid rain, carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere, and the likely extinction of 100,000 species during the next quarter century. Just before leaving office, Carter released a prophetic report, largely written by Speth, that predicted “widespread and pervasive changes in global climatic, economic, social and agricultural patterns” if humanity continued to rely on fossil fuels. The Global 2000 Report to the President became an early clarion call for scientists studying climate change. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Danielle Brigida/US Fish and Wildlife Service History will judge Carter as a president ahead of his time. He set a goal of producing 20 percent of the nation’s energy from renewable sources by 2000. In an age of soaring energy prices and stagflation, he famously wore a cardigan on national television during a fireside chat in which he urged Americans to lower their thermostats and conserve energy. He put solar water heating panels on the roof of the White House, telling reporters, “A generation from now this solar heater can either be a curiosity, a museum piece, an example of a road not taken, or it can be just a small part of one of the greatest and most exciting adventures ever undertaken by the American people.” Ironically, while Carter put federal money into solar energy research, a few years later his successor Ronald Reagan ripped the solar panels off the White House roof—and a few are still displayed in museums. Carter spent much of his time in office trying to deal with energy issues. He proposed a 283-page National Energy Act (NEA) that included a tax on oversized, gas-guzzling cars, tax credits for home insulation, and investments in solar and wind technologies. Carter insisted that his energy bill was the “moral equivalent of war.” In response, The Wall Street Journal labeled it with the sarcastic acronym MEOW. Republican Party chairman Bill Brock charged that the president was “driving people out of their family cars.” Michigan Democratic Congressman John Dingell told Carter aides that it was an “asinine bill.” The legislation nevertheless passed the House, but then encountered much more opposition in the Senate. Carter complained in a private White House diary, “The influence of the oil and gas industry is unbelievable, and it’s impossible to arouse the public to protect themselves.” Carter announces his solar energy policy in front of PV panels installed on the West Wing roof. Warren Leffler/Library of Congress The final bill, passed in October 1978, was a complicated compromise—but it did impose penalties on gas-guzzling cars, required higher efficiency standards for home appliances, and provided tax incentives to develop wind and solar technologies. But environmentalists would criticize it for also providing incentives to mine domestic coal and produce corn-based gasohol. Carter’s goal here was to lessen the country’s dependence on imported Arab oil—and in this he was marginally successful, leading to a decline in oil imports during his term in office. But in an unintended consequence, environmentalists would complain that a part of the bill required that any new power plants be fired with fuels other than oil or natural gas. In practice, that meant coal received a major boost. In retrospect, the most consequential part of the energy bill was the phased decontrol of natural gas prices. This deregulation eventually stimulated exploration for natural gas in the United States and created the market conditions decades later for the innovative fracking technology that would make the country a major supplier of liquefied natural gas. Politically speaking, Carter’s energy policies were criticized by both sides. He was faulted by liberals for enacting too much deregulation, while conservatives perceived him as an enemy of the oil and gas industry. Former President Carter with grandson Jason Carter during a ribbon cutting for a solar project on family farmland in Plains, Georgia. David Goldman/AP If environmentalists should remember one thing about the Carter presidency it should be his so-called “malaise speech” in July 1979. It was an extraordinary sermon about America’s limits—a most un-American idea for a people constantly fed on the manna of manifest destiny. “We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own,” he said. “Our people are losing that faith...In a nation that was once proud of hard work, strong families, close-knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption.” Taking a page straight from Christopher Lasch’s The Culture of Narcissism (which Carter had recently read), Carter observed, “Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.” This was the born-again Southern Baptist in Jimmy Carter speaking, the Southern populist, warning his people about the need to be aware of our environment’s fragility and limitations. It was not a message most Americans wanted to hear. But it remains a key part of his presidential legacy.
The Darnold-Jefferson connection is thriving for the surging Vikings
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